Followup up from my last comment above... my preliminary math says no, having big gains for defense holds and very little losses for defense losses would not stop mediocre or decent players from just paying to take the top. As the amount of attacks approaches 2x what a "good" competitor would do, the amount of points they'd gain overall exceeds what players with better win rates could do.
If we make the assumption that they're at the top of the leaderboard (avg 12 point attack wins, -20 point attack losses, 25 point defense wins, -5 point defense losses):
- "Hyper-Garbo" player with 1000 attacks (75% win rate) and 1000 defenses (5% win rate) gains 4000 points from attacks, loses 3500 from defenses. Total gain of 500 (yeah, these guys still aren't competing)
- "Hyper-Mediocre" player with 1000 attacks (90% win rate) and 1000 defenses (5% win rate): +8800 from attacks, -3500 from defenses. Total gain of 5300 (a decent chunk)
- "Hyper-Good-o" player with 1000 attacks (92% win rate) and 1000 defenses (15% win rate): +9440 from attacks, -500 from defenses. Total gain of 8940 (after accounting for starting at 1900, this would almost break our current top VP record)
- "Good" player with 500 attacks (95% win rate) and 500 defenses (20% win rate): +5200 from attacks, +500 from defenses. Total gain of 5700 (narrowly better than "Hyper-Mediocre"; that means with slightly more participation, "Good" loses to "mediocre who plays a lot")
- "Great" player with 500 attacks (98% win rate) and 500 defenses (30% win rate): +5680 from attacks, +2000 from defenses. Total gain of 7680 (Better than "Good", but worse than "Hyper-Good-o")
- As a fun bonus, a "Lazy Great" player with 250 attacks (98% win rate) and 250 defenses (30% win rate): +2840 from attacks, +100 from defenses. Total gain of 3840 (worse than more engaged "Good" and "Great", but also miles below "Hyper-Garbo" and "Hyper Good-o"
(Don't mind my name archetypes, they're purely for discussion purposes. If you put in 150+ battles each week, you're awesome and engaging at a healthy level in my books.)
In short, the hyper-engaged players trump players with far better win rates if they have the time, patience, and Ironite to get a lot more matches. Of course, if the "Good" and "Great" players start spending as much Ironite and time to get to close to the amount of attacks the less-good hyper-engaged players, they will make better gains, but that's going to happen regardless, and happen more under something like the current system, where defense win rate has far more of an impact on your score (or more accurately, how often you lose will pull you down more).
As a fun experiment, I took a look at what would happen if defense losses didn't take away any points... naturally, this favours the hyper-engaged to a far greater degree than players with less battles but far superior win rates ("Hyper-Good-o" gains a staggering 13,190 points, and even "Hyper-Mediocre" gets 10,050 points and edges out the "Great" player's 9,430 points).
As for the strategy of being super patient and only taking matches that give +20 points... well, definitely let us know how that goes, Nicko, but that does look like it's competitive under the current system if we don't account for the Saturday rush (booooo). However, it stands no chance under the system where defense wins give far more points... or in a world where you just lose a bit less points for defensive losses, which I hope we can move to soon.
(Also, it's worth keeping in mind that all but #1 is not going to get 12 points for a win unless they're leaps and bounds ahead of all other competitors... you guys will have a better sense for this than me, but I suspect an average of 13 or 14 is probably more realistic, if you assume rarely getting someone above you in points and occasionally getting someone around/a bit below you in points.)