View Full Version : Do some skills have higher odds than they claim?

07-15-2018, 02:03 PM
There's something I've noticed in a couple of places... skills that, on paper, have low-to-middling odds of having an effect, yet seems to always or nearly-always trigger anyway. I dunno if I'm just seeing a possible-if-unlikely statistical aberration, of if maybe they've just been changed at some point and the description left untouched, or something.

Two places I've noticed it is the 'Revenge' Passive - the one that claims to have a 35% chance to attack anyone who hits an ally. Some of the LoL-stages have groups of FIVE Golden Sons equipped with this Passive. And every time I've hit ONE of them, I've gotten 4 counterattacks back. Recently went up against someone who had a Golden Son (Warrior) in their PVP-team, and had the same experience - EVERY attack, without exception, got countered. Thinking back, I literally cannot recall ever seeing it FAIL to trigger. All this despite on-paper odds of just over one-in-three...

Second oddity I've noticed is the Passive Disable effect of the Desert Guardian's basic attack. It claims to have a 50/50 chance, unsharded. I've been using one to round up some Passive Disable missions, though (having had no luck getting any OTHER character with halfway-decent Passive Disable), and... well, same deal. It seems to hit EVERY TIME. I MAY have seen it fail to apply ONCE, thinking back... but I wouldn't swear to it. A bit less unlikely seeing as the supposed odds are 50%, but still, it should've failed a lot more often than that. Many other moves I frequently use, with the same supposed odds, certainly seem able to miss a lot more often...

So, am I just imagining things, or do those moves actually have better odds than they claim? If so, are there others like that? Both of the mentioned characters certainly seem to be a lot more effective in battle than their stats would suggest, and for all I know, I've got another such lion in sheep's clothing stashed somewhere...

EDIT: Umm... nevermind? I just noticed that the Desert Guardian's basic attack has straight-up guaranteed Passive Disable. I could've SWORN it used to say 50%, but maybe I'm misremembering... and as for the Revenge-passive, it seems to be behaving properly on a closer examination. Maybe I was just failing to account for multi-hit attacks giving them a lot more chances to trigger or something. Really wish there was an outright 'Delete post' option on this board...

Lord Schmeb
07-16-2018, 11:02 PM
Actually, you have valid concerns, even if your specific ones turned out incorrect. I am 100% certain that echo talismen on Krampus are calibrated incorrectly. That is, he will will get a second turn on roughly 85% of his first attacks, and roughly 75% chance of getting a third turn plus. It is rare to see him only get one attack in a turn. Another one of note is the Sentinel Black Chick Priestess Thingy; she revenges on 8 out of 10 attacks. I PvP with mostly single target hitters, so AoE dmg isn’t the trigger. Lastly, Blue Lilleth procs her extra turn WAAAAAAY more when she’s on Defense than when she’s on an attack team. It’s gotta be at least 7:1.

07-16-2018, 11:11 PM
I swear the AI has a higher accuracy setting (although devs will deny it). In my experience the AI generally gets about a 15-20% boost of accuracy. That means when the AI is playing a character all it's "chances" are increased at least 15%. That 35% becomes 50 or 55% minimum. In PvP with skill shards in play, you can easily level up a toon to 80-85% "chance" of something... then when the AI plays the defense, that 80% "chance" becomes 100% most of the time. This is why the S Mayan or WUR ALWAYS revenge and ALWAY steal buffs.

This is why Defense teams in PvP always seem to get that extra "trigger" the attack team never sees. Lately I'm seeing Magus Lilith get 4-5-6 even 7 turns in a row in PvP. And although devs continually state "there's no boost" -- I can not fathom how a random generator can hit the same 35% range over and over and over and over and over 7 times in a row.

I also can't get my G Lilith to steal a blue buff MOST of the time since they nerfed her. But I'll be damned if the G Lilith on defense doesn't steal blue buffs every hit. Or when both teams have primordials on The Prisoner.. my ENTIRE team ALL start the battle with Perfect Corruption or Exhaust yet the defense team has not a single debuff but a slew of yellows. You would think in most cases, same characters same talismans they'd cancel each other out to even.. but nope.

Lord Schmeb
07-16-2018, 11:29 PM
Bwahaha, I couldn’t have said it better. It’s so bad that before the coin is flipped I’ll start calling the play, and it’s scary how accurate they usually are. Your scenario with your Prisoner is one I also endure on a shit ton of my battles, and can predict with almost 100% accuracy, how the first round will go. Anytime there’s a Lilleth present, it’s almost a sure thing. Don’t know which is worse, the actual bugs, or the fact that I’ve resorted to talking out loud to my device out of frustration.

07-17-2018, 08:57 AM
This is well known and Yup and I have written about it maybe half a year ago. I also came up with an estimate of 15-20% bonus on triggering and also on perfect hits. As I said it in those days, to a certain degree it is "OK", as the "AI" is just plain stupid in many situations. But if no AI is needed to make you suffer in a certain situation, you suffer a lot from the accuracy and trigger boost. Up to a certain level you can compsensate and if you always plan with the worst case you can be lucky enough to still win a fight where a lot goes against you - but not always for sure! I accepted to have a win rate <95% because of that and I try to be satisfied with the fact, that this problem is the same for all of us.

07-19-2018, 08:24 PM
Hmm... sounds like something you can and should plan around, especially in PVP. Characters who might be so-so when YOU use them might be a lot more deadly in the AI's hands with that bonus, especially for stuff like Extra Turns, but also some of the nastier status-ailments.

So yeah, same for everyone - but knowledge is power...

07-20-2018, 09:51 AM
I am glad to get a 95% plus win rate for sure - it is tough to get that (for me anyway) when you are top 100 early in the week. For me I always thought that when I played someone just below me in points in arena they got a boost as I knew without question that they would get the breaks and luck - this still happens. I also think the reverse happens for me when I attack someone just above me - I always seem to get the luck or breaks. Anyone else seen this at all?