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Leviathan
12-11-2018, 12:03 AM
Crush the Lord of Light for Soul Fragments to earn a guaranteed 4★ character!

From now until December 13th, 4 PM PT, each battle in the Lord of Light dungeons has a chance of dropping Derby Demon Soul Fragments. Collect 200 and you can redeem them in the Book of Souls’ Fragments screen for your very own 4★ Warrior Derby Demon!

The Warrior Derby Demon joins the cast as a new 4★ Warrior in Legacy of the Beast. The Derby Demon excels at dismantling her opponent’s defenses and inflicting potent negative effects on enemies. She is also able to Generate Fury for the team and gain Extra Turns with her passive skill to keep the onslaught rolling.

Normally, when the fragments drop, you’ll earn 5 or 10 fragments, but if you’re lucky, you could earn 50 fragments from one battle, so don’t be afraid of that 200 requirement! Additionally, you can earn as many Derby Demon Souls as you can collect the fragments for, so feel free to grab some extras for your next big Sacrifice!

SPECIAL EVENT ADDITIONS: For the duration of this event, the Lord of Light dungeons also have the following changes:


Lilith Soul Fragments are available from all floors of the Lord of Light dungeons! Lilith Soul Fragments are a recurring fragment that is periodically featured in events, and may require you to collect them from multiple events in order to have enough to redeem a soul. Collect 500 for a guaranteed 5★ Lilith!
All Lord of Light dungeons will also have a 3x chance of dropping Rare Souls! Don’t miss out on this opportunity to get more Rare Souls while getting your guaranteed 4★ character!


Finally, we have a few deals available in the store to help with getting and gearing up a Derby Demon:


Get a FREE 10 Derby Demon Soul Fragments to start you off!
Grab the “Warrior Experience Pack”! This provides Ironite to help farm more fragments, a bit of gold, 5★ XP Shards, and Skill Shards to power up a new Derby Demon!
Various talisman packs are also available that work well with an Derby Demon, including Sustaining Talismans and the debut Dominance Talismans!


Dominance Talismans are red talismans with a 3 set effect that is not available anywhere else!. Equip them for a 35% chance to gain a random offensive buff when you take damage. You’ll also gain a 50% chance to Heal for 20% of your Max HP when you take damage.

Sustaining Talismans are green talismans with a 2 set effect! Equip a full set to Heal all allies for 3% of MAX HP every turn. These talismans will also heal for an additional 3% for every Beneficial Effect currently on you.

Please note that after the conclusion of this event, collecting more Derby Demon Soul Fragments will not be possible, but any extras you have can be converted to Precious Soul Fragments. Additionally, this character is not available in any other souls, so if you miss your chance to recruit him, it may be a very long time until you get another chance!

Amarthir
12-11-2018, 05:35 AM
Ohh Harley...

Ip4
12-11-2018, 10:29 AM
i think this is great character against this annoying magus lilith in pvp...

Blade
12-11-2018, 10:35 AM
Really interesting new character! Good to see that some good characters are chosen now for the fragment events (as it means that 99% of all players will be able to get the character).
Not so nice to see some pay-only Talismans again, but yes I know...money...basic mobile gaming "macro"pay approach...

Banished
12-11-2018, 02:33 PM
20 runs lev 10 this morning: received 120 frags
22-25 runs lev 10 this afternoon: received: 0 frags!!!!!

Wtf?

Banished
12-11-2018, 02:34 PM
Really interesting new character! Good to see that some good characters are chosen now for the fragment events (as it means that 99% of all players will be able to get the character).
Not so nice to see some pay-only Talismans again, but yes I know...money...basic mobile gaming "macro"pay approach...

agree. but we will probably see them one day in gauntlet.

Blade
12-11-2018, 02:46 PM
20 runs lev 10 this morning: received 120 frags
22-25 runs lev 10 this afternoon: received: 0 frags!!!!!

Wtf?

The fragments always seem to drop in waves, so it depends if you are lucky (or not) to match such a wave (or not). At least this is my impression and others share this experience aswell. I hope the good waves will come (and won't be during night time in Europe always...)
After a mega refill and using all today's natural SoT so far, I have 260 frags now plus the 10 free from the shop.
I can't get rid of the feeling that the drops have been better before...

dragonmat89
12-11-2018, 02:53 PM
About 5 refills has given me 185 frags and 35 Lilith frags.

kgk56
12-11-2018, 03:19 PM
Actually I have 3 WDD souls & I could complete a Lillith (only needed 100 frags)

Blade
12-11-2018, 03:28 PM
Actually I have 3 WDD souls & I could complete a Lillith (only needed 100 frags)

And how many runs or refills did you do for this?

Ip4
12-11-2018, 03:34 PM
300 ironite= 800 SOT = 500 derby demon fragments , 3 rare souls and only 100 lilith fragments...

kgk56
12-11-2018, 03:40 PM
And how many runs or refills did you do for this?

I don't remember (only that I won the first soul with the troopers)

Stormseye
12-11-2018, 03:51 PM
150- ironite for a big SoT refill plus the 90 I had from free refills and purchases. Played level X exclusively and received 200 Derby Frag and about 100 Lillith frags. Was not sure on the Lilliths cause I forgot to check what I had before I started. I will probably run another big Sot to try for a second Derby and get another Lillith.

Patrice-1201
12-11-2018, 03:59 PM
500 SOT = 250 Derby Frags and 250 Lilith Frags on LOL X...

zamasu
12-11-2018, 05:21 PM
Off Topic:

The new Mark Talisman available in the Frontier Store. They are a 3-set but you can only purchase 2 a month. is this an error? or it is intended?

Thank you

Zamasu

Amarthir
12-11-2018, 05:29 PM
Off Topic:

The new Mark Talisman available in the Frontier Store. They are a 3-set but you can only purchase 2 a month. is this an error? or it is intended?

Thank you

Zamasu

My guess is because there's only 2 subtypes you only get two options.

scott-5496
12-11-2018, 05:43 PM
These are my blitz events - I chuck a lot of Ironite at them as you know what you will get........ roughly!

I use it to build up my upgrade material/souls and to get sac fodder - usually keep two or three event characters and sac the rest. 8 so far 7 mega refils last night/today and likely the same for the next two days. I will then blitz the sac event as got a lot waiting in the wings to get fried.

I am hoping for a yultide sac bonanza with lots of snowmen and blood frags!

Muzzleloader
12-11-2018, 06:11 PM
I found a good average over many battles is about two frags per battle. I've seen 3 50 frags drops in 10 battles, then go 20 battles with only a few frags dropping. I have found about 1.2 lilith frags drop per battle. These averages are from thousands of battles over many frag events.

Liu
12-12-2018, 08:03 AM
But longitudinally derived averages are equal to present averages only if the underlying data generation process does not change. And at least to me it appears that drop rates have decreased substantially lately. In the summer i could earn about 1.5 - 2 lilith souls in a week long frag event, now i haven't earned a single lilith soul in the past 3 or so frag events combined ... And I've seen quite a few posts were others are experiencing the same.

druid138
12-12-2018, 08:17 AM
But longitudinally derived averages are equal to present averages only if the underlying data generation process does not change. And at least to me it appears that drop rates have decreased substantially lately. In the summer i could earn about 1.5 - 2 lilith souls in a week long frag event, now i haven't earned a single lilith soul in the past 3 or so frag events combined ... And I've seen quite a few posts were others are experiencing the same.

I agree 100% with your first sentence. I track drop rates in these events pretty meticulously, and I have seen no evidence personally of declining drop rates. In fact, I have seen my best Lilith fragment drop rate yet in this current event - 2 Liliths in 40 SoT fills, compared to about 60 SoT fills needed on average to get 2 Liliths. I'm just a single data point, but things seem steady to me.

Liu
12-12-2018, 08:46 AM
I agree 100% with your first sentence. I track drop rates in these events pretty meticulously, and I have seen no evidence personally of declining drop rates. In fact, I have seen my best Lilith fragment drop rate yet in this current event - 2 Liliths in 40 SoT fills, compared to about 60 SoT fills needed on average to get 2 Liliths. I'm just a single data point, but things seem steady to me.

Thank you for information :) I obviously assumed, based on a few other posts and personal experience, that there has been a downward adjustment in drop rates. So far I haven't seen posts stating the contrary. I'd love to see your (and everybody else's) data though ... I'm too lazy to keep track myself ...

druid138
12-12-2018, 09:06 AM
Thank you for information :) I obviously assumed, based on a few other posts and personal experience, that there has been a downward adjustment in drop rates. So far I haven't seen posts stating the contrary. I'd love to see your (and everybody else's) data though ... I'm too lazy to keep track myself ...

I'm not saying that drop rates haven't changed - just that I personally have seen no evidence of it. I was thinking of creating a post summarizing my results of each Lilith event - maybe I'll do that over the holidays.

Liu
12-12-2018, 09:10 AM
I'm not saying that drop rates haven't changed - just that I personally have seen no evidence of it. I was thinking of creating a post summarizing my results of each Lilith event - maybe I'll do that over the holidays.

That'd be awesome. Maybe others will join and post their data as well. That would actually enable us to apply statistical magic to see whether or not there has been a change in drop rates.

vpachev
12-12-2018, 11:15 AM
4 mega refills + natural refills = about 650 lillith frags and 5 event characters. Pulled out 2 lilliths sentinel and gunner finally, very lucky this time.

scott-5496
12-12-2018, 12:58 PM
I should keep counts but I cant be arsed! I always do these events as much as I can with the ironite I have as they are the safe bet events pretty much. I just check in mega refill after mega refill - distibuted fairly evenly over the three LOL dingeons or with a certian focus deoending on what resources I am lowest on each month. Works for me anyway.

Pretty sure I will be around 14-18 WDD (got 12 now) by the end and around 4 Lilith (over 2 now) - that is my norm.

Blade
12-12-2018, 01:23 PM
The number of 50's drops account alot for the statistics. Still I am quite sure that the drops decreased compared to what we had let's say a year ago. I normally do the same number of refills during these events and while I acquired about 12 event chars a while ago the recent events of that kind gave me about 10. For this event it is half time for me and with ~700 frags I am again below the average as it would yield only 7 event chars with linear interpolation.

Wow, Scott you really burn alot of ironite then!! For me that is too expensive, especially as we know that every month has one of these events and recently also another dungeon event per month that also "requires" some refills!

Good luck everyone to get to your personal goal!

scott-5496
12-12-2018, 01:34 PM
Wow, Scott you really burn alot of ironite then!! For me that is too expensive, especially as we know that every month has one of these events and recently also another dungeon event per month that also "requires" some refills!

Yeah, well I just dont buy the soul packs or spend ironite on Sands of War these days and what I would have spent on that I spend on events like this - I had bought the recent 9.99 upgrade packs when you got a legendary (four I thin kI got) so that meant lots of ironite build up!

Esquatcho
12-12-2018, 02:03 PM
Reckon its better to use extra derby girl frags to create dupes for sacrifice....

Or to convert to precious frags and hope for a 5* heart/idol?

Anyone crunched the numbers?

Liu
12-12-2018, 02:50 PM
precious soul = 50 frags
conversion rate 5 derby frags = 1 prec soul frag

50 * 5 = 250

=> 1.25 derby demon souls = 1 prec soul

sac val of sac hearts at max lvl:
1* = 1000
3* = 1500
5* = 4000


assuming each precious soul drops with 1/6 (which is overestimating the sac val)
expected sac val = 1/6 * (1k + 1.5k + 4k) = 1/6 + 6.5k = 1083

sac val of derby demons at max lvl:
4* = 2400

1.25 * 2.4k = 3k

3k > 1083

and 1083 is already an overestimation due to the assumption of uniformly distributed pulls.
so yeah, unless i did a stupid mistake then only convert your leftovers after the event has terminated.



of course you have to take monetary gains into account as well. so lets add them up (assuming again a uniform dist again)

sell val of idols:
1* = 50k
3* = 300k
5* = 1m (not sure if its actually 1m, i didn't get them often enough to memorize it ><)

1/6 * (1.35m) = 225k

which is overestimating the monetary gain.

then you have 3k sac val vs 1083 sac val + 225k gold

if you want the proper expected values just replace the uniform probabilities with the actual probabilities which should be decreasing the expected values.

druid138
12-13-2018, 10:08 PM
70 SoT fills (all Floor X):

1,455 Lilith frags
2,620 Derby Demon frags
25 Rare Souls

osiris0000
12-13-2018, 10:46 PM
precious soul = 50 frags
conversion rate 5 derby frags = 1 prec soul frag

50 * 5 = 250

=> 1.25 derby demon souls = 1 prec soul

sac val of sac hearts at max lvl:
1* = 1000
3* = 1500
5* = 4000


assuming each precious soul drops with 1/6 (which is overestimating the sac val)
expected sac val = 1/6 * (1k + 1.5k + 4k) = 1/6 + 6.5k = 1083

sac val of derby demons at max lvl:
4* = 2400

1.25 * 2.4k = 3k

3k > 1083

and 1083 is already an overestimation due to the assumption of uniformly distributed pulls.
so yeah, unless i did a stupid mistake then only convert your leftovers after the event has terminated.



of course you have to take monetary gains into account as well. so lets add them up (assuming again a uniform dist again)

sell val of idols:
1* = 50k
3* = 300k
5* = 1m (not sure if its actually 1m, i didn't get them often enough to memorize it ><)

1/6 * (1.35m) = 225k

which is overestimating the monetary gain.

then you have 3k sac val vs 1083 sac val + 225k gold

if you want the proper expected values just replace the uniform probabilities with the actual probabilities which should be decreasing the expected values.

https://i.imgflip.com/2m0s2q.jpg

Wow, really mad math there! Would like to hear the optimum calculations when it is sacrifice event :cool: