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Cthulhu
04-13-2020, 12:15 PM
Hey everyone. I had a sacrificial spree today and managed to get two 99 stacks of Devouring souls.

So, here are what I got from them (not counting the fragments, just from the souls themselves)

First, how I began:

8177

The stacks

8178

8179

Opened

8180

The result: two 5* characters, including one Fenrir.

8181

34 4* characters.

The rest 3* characters, including five Speed of Light Eddies, the only Eddies I got.

A bit disappointing to be frank, given the official statistics.

8182

Then again, 198 souls are probably not enough for proper statistics (as opposed to, I don't know, 1 million?), so there's that.

Saints_sin
04-13-2020, 02:54 PM
198 souls how many 5 stars ?

Muzzleloader
04-13-2020, 03:18 PM
160 souls no 5*.

Cthulhu
04-13-2020, 05:28 PM
198 souls how many 5 stars ?

Just the two, Fenrir and the Gunner Werewolf.

Puntwothree
04-13-2020, 06:44 PM
Don’t know how many souls I’ve opened... I think I’ve claimed one Fenrir, maybe 2, sacked a couple, and am sitting on about 3,100 Fenrir frags. With some back math ^^ I could probably figure it out. (Fine, OK, math done: it’s between 300-400).

However, I know I opened at least three Fenrir, at least two G. Werewolf, and at least five A. Werewolf, two of which have come from my last 10 souls, all the 5* units (except maybe 1 of the A. Wolves) came from regular 3-5* event souls.

So... I might be evening you out...

scimitar
04-13-2020, 09:52 PM
This did not happen to me .
8183
It is unfair that there is no Nobel Prize for mathematics. The developers clearly deserve it for the probability theory that I observe in the gamе

Yup
04-13-2020, 09:58 PM
Let this not happen to me.8183
It is unfair that there is no Nobel Prize for mathematics. The developers clearly deserve it for the probability theory that I observe in the gamе

Well that clearly must have been Heroic Mythicals, where there are only 2 characters in the poole. It's odd that the other character didn't appear.. but it's not as odd as if the poole were 50 characters.

Rain88
04-13-2020, 10:16 PM
This did not happen to me .
8183
It is unfair that there is no Nobel Prize for mathematics. The developers clearly deserve it for the probability theory that I observe in the gamе

Did someone say statistics?
The odds of this happening ,assuming it was 50% for Bass Eddie chance, is 0.048828125‬% (since these events are independant it's =0.5^11). Ouch

Yup
04-13-2020, 10:43 PM
I'm not disagreeing that it's odd.. I've ALWAYS claimed the AI is not "balanced"... or as they put it "streaky". RNG actually stands for "Repetitive Navigator games"

Muzzleloader
04-13-2020, 10:53 PM
This sac event I dropped over 1000 rare and event souls with no 5* dropping. Statistically the drops in the game should seem more fair, but as we see it just doesnt happen.

Yup
04-13-2020, 10:58 PM
I've dropped several hundred of the event souls and never saw Fenrir drop... and the cat only once. and only 3 star werewolves a couple times.

HuckFinn150
04-13-2020, 11:45 PM
I've done about the same and have gotten garbage basically. Nothing I didn't already have and nothing I wanted.

ElvisIsDead
04-14-2020, 09:59 AM
There are no 3* werewolves and the cat only drops from the folkvangr soul. The chances of getting Fenrir from a devouring soul is <0.5%, but since you only need to drop 75 to guarantee a fenrir-specific soul, it is hardly a problem.

Fenrir is the easiest new character to acquire in recent memory. Sacrifice events had been getting stingier, but now they are back to being pretty generous.

ritchbe
04-14-2020, 10:00 AM
This did not happen to me .
It is unfair that there is no Nobel Prize for mathematics. The developers clearly deserve it for the probability theory that I observe in the gamе

I won't even bother anymore in rationalizing that this might be a Gauss spread... it should have been clear to us when they put Madam Fortune on sale for ironite that the drop rates will be fixed:


no Madam drops for anybody
devs manually put Madam here and there so it looks like she's dropping


@devs: where are the drop rates? We have a large set here on forum/discord chats to confirm them (or rather disapprove them)

Muzzleloader
04-14-2020, 11:36 PM
75 heroics and she dropped

Brickster
04-15-2020, 07:51 AM
This did not happen to me .
8183
It is unfair that there is no Nobel Prize for mathematics. The developers clearly deserve it for the probability theory that I observe in the gamе

The question this sparks in me is: "Why would you summon 11 mythic souls in one go?"
If you're fishing for one character that has a 50% of dropping I'd never summon 11 in one go. Maybe it's editted?

IronMaster
04-15-2020, 10:38 AM
The question this sparks in me is: "Why would you summon 11 mythic souls in one go?"
If you're fishing for one character that has a 50% of dropping I'd never summon 11 in one go. Maybe it's editted?

The character in soul sets when you receive soul, not when you summon it.
So there is no difference how you summon souls: one by one or all together.

Maiden
04-15-2020, 11:08 AM
The character in soul sets when you receive soul, not when you summon it.
So there is no difference how you summon souls: one by one or all together.

If you got the char that you are looking for in the very first soul that you opened you do need to waste the other 10...

Brickster
04-15-2020, 11:10 AM
If you got the char that you are looking for in the very first soul that you opened you do need to waste the other 10...

Exactly.

There's literally no point in summoning them all at once IronMaster, unless you already know which character the soul will summon, which you don't.

ritchbe
04-15-2020, 03:19 PM
75 heroics and she dropped

This rotation:

200 heroics, 6 legendary heroics = all 4*
1 Mythical = Bass

Thanks for sharing though :)