Theory on how you can possibly win the coin flip

[angelkelly]

I'm not sure if this is entirely true or not. But after doing some testing with my team.I notice that in order for you to go first in the coin flip. You have to have a team that is stronger then the person you are fighting.

[Caretaker]

Ok. But that's too general. What decides whose team is 'stronger'? Is it stars, skills, talis, afinities? Try to be more specific.

[Askora]

I tried some testing in test defense, to determine whether team cost made a difference. Thinking maybe the coin toss would be biased more towards a lower cost team. My results were pretty much 50/50. So, either it doesn't apply when you're testing your defense, or team cost doesn't play a part.

[angelkelly]

Ok. But that's too general. What decides whose team is 'stronger'? Is it stars, skills, talis? Try to be more secific.

I'm pretty sure it has to do with whether a team has max toons, talis, and of course a good strategy/counter against your team. For instance if I have a Cr, troll, Ags, and a Sentinel Bomber boy against a team who has a mummy, ssd, the prisoner or any other characters that can counter my team making them useless. Then pretty much i will go second based of how their team is set up. If that make any sense.

[zdm-1083]

It is fifty fifty. ^^'
On how many test did your base your conclusion?

[scott-5496]

I did a count a few days ago - I played 36 matches and it 58% me first. The week before I did a similar thing but played 26 times in a day and it 46% me first....so it kind of looks about right - the thing that got me was that you could lose maybe 5-6 times in a row but rarely did a win streak on the flip go beyond 3 and I have seen that quite regularly so if you do not play much you may feel the sting a bit more than if you play a lot?

[zdm-1083]

More than 65% percent over 100 tries and you could say that is "may be" a issue on coin flip.
If it's 65% on 1000 tries, it could happen but it is not usual at all:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=650+heads+out+of+1000

65% on 50 tries is some kind of usual ^^

There, figures you expose looks fine to me.

[Fister]

It is fifty fifty. ^^'
On how many test did your base your conclusion?

It is supposed to be 50/50 aka coin toss. But to me is appears more as a dice roll. A dice shaped as a pyramid and where only 1 of its 4 sides grants me the go-first.

I still win a decent part of my fights. So this the-weaker-team-go-last theory seems not plaussible.

Thanks god 1 in 4 days it seems 50/50.

[Sag7272]

It is supposed to be 50/50 aka coin toss. But to me is appears more as a dice roll. A dice shaped as a pyramid and where only 1 of its 4 sides grants me the go-first.
I still win a decent part of my fights. So this the-weaker-team-go-last theory seems not plaussible.
Thanks god 1 in 4 days it seems 50/50.

Well.. unless the game itself correct the ratio to a perfect 50/50 it just can't happen... Like flipping a real coin 10 times in a row it's as likely to go flat 50/50 as it can go 80/20 or 10/90 it's a possibility as common as another since odds are always 50% in theory for every flip.. Some have to be more lucky than others..

It's as annoying (if not more) to test defense 10 times in a row without def getting initiative, same aleatory mechanic.. But this one deserves a button to choose which team start, game is already time consuming enough to spend an hour instead of 15min trying 2 def teams because it never seems to start...

[Askora]

Out of 60 tries in defense test with a team point bias of 64/48, I got 29 times first for the 64 point team and 31 times first for the 48 point team. Good enough for me to feel it's 50/50 regardless of team cost. I did this after losing 9 out of 10 coin tosses in a row, then having to watch my team get taunted or stunned. Still seems to be a bias, but I think it may be more perceptual than actual. You notice more when it's frustrating, than when it's not. Another factor, is that computer generated random numbers aren't truly random and they can have patterns that bias towards a specific outcome. It does seem that at times the odds are running in my favor and all my effects work, other times I can win a coin toss and have nothing work.

[Fister]

Well.. unless the game itself correct the ratio to a perfect 50/50 it just can't happen... Like flipping a real coin 10 times in a row it's as likely to go flat 50/50 as it can go 80/20 or 10/90 it's a possibility as common as another since odds are always 50% in theory for every flip.. Some have to be more lucky than others..

It's as annoying (if not more) to test defense 10 times in a row without def getting initiative, same aleatory mechanic.. But this one deserves a button to choose which team start, game is already time consuming enough to spend an hour instead of 15min trying 2 def teams because it never seems to start...

Sure, can happen if you flip the coin 10 times. But this is my 4th week in PvP I think, meaning I've done approximately 1K battles and the pattern is still the same.

Besides when a 10-times-in-a-row-going-2nd is possible so is 10-times-in-a-row-going-1st. Never happened, not even close.

Thanks God I'm able of winning most battles despite this. But when this event is over I will go back to cherrypicking. I want to battle, not be a spectator.

But in a few years when RNG can't no longer prevent me from getting Chuck, he will take his best friend ARD (no - not the German tv-chanel) and come crashing any taunt-stun-fest around.

Cheers

[Sag7272]

Sure, can happen if you flip the coin 10 times. But this is my 4th week in PvP I think, meaning I've done approximately 1K battles and the pattern is still the same.
Besides when a 10-times-in-a-row-going-2nd is possible so is 10-times-in-a-row-going-1st. Never happened, not even close.
Thanks God I'm able of winning most battles despite this. But when this event is over I will go back to cherrypicking. I want to battle, not be a spectator.
But in a few years when RNG can't no longer prevent me from getting Chuck, he will take his best friend ARD (no - not the German tv-chanel) and come crashing any taunt-stun-fest around.
Cheers

Oh that..
Seriously, since december t'll recently i've played every SoW aviable and a good 1k ironites on top of that & it's roughly 50/50 over like 3 and half month...
Some weeks it was favorable, other not but overall it balance out.. Over couple thousands loll

As for Tauntfests..
To me It's a drowning strategy, with new talismans it's a matter of time, with one set only & mostly without using my Pris.. I average 100% over taunt fests this week, only one immunity set & no Prisoner on attack... Only losses on AMLCO crashes..
Surely don't look super promising for tauntfest kind of teams i'd advice to look elsewhere...

You would have loved the infamous GS/DM combos of lores, those taunts are child plays in comparaison lolll.. Hold rates back then where in the 55-60% ranges..

[Fister]

Oh that..
Seriously, since december t'll recently i've played every SoW aviable and a good 1k ironites on top of that & it's roughly 50/50 over like 3 and half month...
Some weeks it was favorable, other not but overall it balance out.. Over couple thousands loll

As for Tauntfests..
To me It's a drowning strategy, with new talismans it's a matter of time, with one set only & mostly without using my Pris.. I average 100% over taunt fests this week, only one immunity set & no Prisoner on attack... Only losses on AMLCO crashes..
Surely don't look super promising for tauntfest kind of teams i'd advice to look elsewhere...

You would have loved the infamous GS/DM combos of lores, those taunts are child plays in comparaison lolll.. Hold rates back then where in the 55-60% ranges..

Just glad I didn't. My cellphone/tablet would prolly not have survived for long. 😝

[Tritium]

I just experienced what it's like to go 2nd over 7 times in a row for the first time and I can say that it's frustrating to no end. Well, I guess it's only this bad because I lack a Prisoner. The coin flip is even more important for those of us without a gimp, and oh man, does a losing streak suck. :| I'm going to retreat to my cave until I regain the courage to start another PVP battle.

[satani]

it's definitively random (at least in revenge) as sometimes, when a person has attacked you more times, then you can revenge him as often.
So say, he attacked you twice, you can attack him twice. And yet the coin-flip can be different both times, even though it's the same team.

So yeah - random.

[Killhouse]

I would plan your attack team around going second. You'll start with more power to recover the initial attacks thrown at you and if are able to do this, you'll have an easier time if you get to go first.

Ways to do this:

High health
Passives to shield, increase defense
Use siege
Shell Talismans
Immunity Talismans **** seriously, not having a prisoner myself - these just made him a non-factor now. Plus you can use his death to "trigger" passives mid-fight

Players higher up in the rankings aren't PVPing for their first week or just starting the game. Some of us have been around since beta or shortly after release and have collected talismans/characters that have been built up over months. Lots of us have also shared good tips and advice for PVP that we learned in the month plus of the beta phase.

Be thankful that with all the changes to loot you can easily level a talisman in a few days, or even 5* a character now. Doing that in the summer took weeks....

If you build a glass cannon team, you'll have a harder time winning if you go second. Prepare for the worst!