Character Fragment Event, featuring the DEBUT Warrior Derby Demon

[Liu]

I agree 100% with your first sentence. I track drop rates in these events pretty meticulously, and I have seen no evidence personally of declining drop rates. In fact, I have seen my best Lilith fragment drop rate yet in this current event - 2 Liliths in 40 SoT fills, compared to about 60 SoT fills needed on average to get 2 Liliths. I'm just a single data point, but things seem steady to me.

Thank you for information I obviously assumed, based on a few other posts and personal experience, that there has been a downward adjustment in drop rates. So far I haven't seen posts stating the contrary. I'd love to see your (and everybody else's) data though ... I'm too lazy to keep track myself ...

[druid138]

Thank you for information I obviously assumed, based on a few other posts and personal experience, that there has been a downward adjustment in drop rates. So far I haven't seen posts stating the contrary. I'd love to see your (and everybody else's) data though ... I'm too lazy to keep track myself ...

I'm not saying that drop rates haven't changed - just that I personally have seen no evidence of it. I was thinking of creating a post summarizing my results of each Lilith event - maybe I'll do that over the holidays.

[Liu]

I'm not saying that drop rates haven't changed - just that I personally have seen no evidence of it. I was thinking of creating a post summarizing my results of each Lilith event - maybe I'll do that over the holidays.

That'd be awesome. Maybe others will join and post their data as well. That would actually enable us to apply statistical magic to see whether or not there has been a change in drop rates.

[vpachev]

4 mega refills + natural refills = about 650 lillith frags and 5 event characters. Pulled out 2 lilliths sentinel and gunner finally, very lucky this time.

[scott-5496]

I should keep counts but I cant be arsed! I always do these events as much as I can with the ironite I have as they are the safe bet events pretty much. I just check in mega refill after mega refill - distibuted fairly evenly over the three LOL dingeons or with a certian focus deoending on what resources I am lowest on each month. Works for me anyway.

Pretty sure I will be around 14-18 WDD (got 12 now) by the end and around 4 Lilith (over 2 now) - that is my norm.

[Blade]

The number of 50's drops account alot for the statistics. Still I am quite sure that the drops decreased compared to what we had let's say a year ago. I normally do the same number of refills during these events and while I acquired about 12 event chars a while ago the recent events of that kind gave me about 10. For this event it is half time for me and with ~700 frags I am again below the average as it would yield only 7 event chars with linear interpolation.

Wow, Scott you really burn alot of ironite then!! For me that is too expensive, especially as we know that every month has one of these events and recently also another dungeon event per month that also "requires" some refills!

Good luck everyone to get to your personal goal!

[scott-5496]

Wow, Scott you really burn alot of ironite then!! For me that is too expensive, especially as we know that every month has one of these events and recently also another dungeon event per month that also "requires" some refills!

Yeah, well I just dont buy the soul packs or spend ironite on Sands of War these days and what I would have spent on that I spend on events like this - I had bought the recent £9.99 upgrade packs when you got a legendary (four I thin kI got) so that meant lots of ironite build up!

[Esquatcho]

Reckon its better to use extra derby girl frags to create dupes for sacrifice....

Or to convert to precious frags and hope for a 5* heart/idol?

Anyone crunched the numbers?

[Liu]

precious soul = 50 frags
conversion rate 5 derby frags = 1 prec soul frag

50 * 5 = 250

=> 1.25 derby demon souls = 1 prec soul

sac val of sac hearts at max lvl:
1* = 1000
3* = 1500
5* = 4000


assuming each precious soul drops with 1/6 (which is overestimating the sac val)
expected sac val = 1/6 * (1k + 1.5k + 4k) = 1/6 + 6.5k = 1083

sac val of derby demons at max lvl:
4* = 2400

1.25 * 2.4k = 3k

3k > 1083

and 1083 is already an overestimation due to the assumption of uniformly distributed pulls.
so yeah, unless i did a stupid mistake then only convert your leftovers after the event has terminated.



of course you have to take monetary gains into account as well. so lets add them up (assuming again a uniform dist again)

sell val of idols:
1* = 50k
3* = 300k
5* = 1m (not sure if its actually 1m, i didn't get them often enough to memorize it ><)

1/6 * (1.35m) = 225k

which is overestimating the monetary gain.

then you have 3k sac val vs 1083 sac val + 225k gold

if you want the proper expected values just replace the uniform probabilities with the actual probabilities which should be decreasing the expected values.

[druid138]

70 SoT fills (all Floor X):

1,455 Lilith frags
2,620 Derby Demon frags
25 Rare Souls