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  1. #21
    Senior Member Liu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by druid138 View Post
    I agree 100% with your first sentence. I track drop rates in these events pretty meticulously, and I have seen no evidence personally of declining drop rates. In fact, I have seen my best Lilith fragment drop rate yet in this current event - 2 Liliths in 40 SoT fills, compared to about 60 SoT fills needed on average to get 2 Liliths. I'm just a single data point, but things seem steady to me.
    Thank you for information I obviously assumed, based on a few other posts and personal experience, that there has been a downward adjustment in drop rates. So far I haven't seen posts stating the contrary. I'd love to see your (and everybody else's) data though ... I'm too lazy to keep track myself ...
    Liu-5868

    from a world of magma to a cold rock face,
    the ascent of madness and the human race

  2. #22
    Senior Member druid138's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Liu View Post
    Thank you for information I obviously assumed, based on a few other posts and personal experience, that there has been a downward adjustment in drop rates. So far I haven't seen posts stating the contrary. I'd love to see your (and everybody else's) data though ... I'm too lazy to keep track myself ...
    I'm not saying that drop rates haven't changed - just that I personally have seen no evidence of it. I was thinking of creating a post summarizing my results of each Lilith event - maybe I'll do that over the holidays.
    druid138-6195
    Beast Eddie
    Spiral path leads through the maze
    Down into the fiery underworld below

  3. #23
    Senior Member Liu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by druid138 View Post
    I'm not saying that drop rates haven't changed - just that I personally have seen no evidence of it. I was thinking of creating a post summarizing my results of each Lilith event - maybe I'll do that over the holidays.
    That'd be awesome. Maybe others will join and post their data as well. That would actually enable us to apply statistical magic to see whether or not there has been a change in drop rates.
    Liu-5868

    from a world of magma to a cold rock face,
    the ascent of madness and the human race

  4. #24
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    4 mega refills + natural refills = about 650 lillith frags and 5 event characters. Pulled out 2 lilliths sentinel and gunner finally, very lucky this time.
    vov-7058

  5. #25
    Senior Member scott-5496's Avatar
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    I should keep counts but I cant be arsed! I always do these events as much as I can with the ironite I have as they are the safe bet events pretty much. I just check in mega refill after mega refill - distibuted fairly evenly over the three LOL dingeons or with a certian focus deoending on what resources I am lowest on each month. Works for me anyway.

    Pretty sure I will be around 14-18 WDD (got 12 now) by the end and around 4 Lilith (over 2 now) - that is my norm.
    Missing the following characters (well the ones I want!)...never bother keeping things like idols and hearts:

    Samurai Emperor Eddie - Iron Maiden Eddie
    Redan - The Count - Chopper - Derby Demon - Savage Reaper - Krampus...and all the new guys except Gunner Anubis!

    "We oil the jaws of the war machine and feed it with our babies" - Two Minutes to Midnight - Powerslave

    scott-5496

  6. #26
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    The number of 50's drops account alot for the statistics. Still I am quite sure that the drops decreased compared to what we had let's say a year ago. I normally do the same number of refills during these events and while I acquired about 12 event chars a while ago the recent events of that kind gave me about 10. For this event it is half time for me and with ~700 frags I am again below the average as it would yield only 7 event chars with linear interpolation.

    Wow, Scott you really burn alot of ironite then!! For me that is too expensive, especially as we know that every month has one of these events and recently also another dungeon event per month that also "requires" some refills!

    Good luck everyone to get to your personal goal!
    March 1st 2019 - NEVER FORGET! They stole 50% of our rare soul frags, 11% mythical frags, 60% legendary frags and 66% of rare class specific frags! Plus doubled gold price for summoning souls without a notice!

    Missing chars:
    Samurai Emperor Eddie - Ramesses Eddie - NotB Eddie - (Lost-Frags-Ed) - (Gold-Digger-Ed) - (Correct-Gauntlet-Rewards-Ed) - (BugFix-Ed)
    Elf - Wickerdeer - Nutcracker - Derby Demon - Prison Cook - PDK - Anubis - the one and only SIRIUS

  7. #27
    Senior Member scott-5496's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blade View Post
    Wow, Scott you really burn alot of ironite then!! For me that is too expensive, especially as we know that every month has one of these events and recently also another dungeon event per month that also "requires" some refills!
    Yeah, well I just dont buy the soul packs or spend ironite on Sands of War these days and what I would have spent on that I spend on events like this - I had bought the recent 9.99 upgrade packs when you got a legendary (four I thin kI got) so that meant lots of ironite build up!
    Missing the following characters (well the ones I want!)...never bother keeping things like idols and hearts:

    Samurai Emperor Eddie - Iron Maiden Eddie
    Redan - The Count - Chopper - Derby Demon - Savage Reaper - Krampus...and all the new guys except Gunner Anubis!

    "We oil the jaws of the war machine and feed it with our babies" - Two Minutes to Midnight - Powerslave

    scott-5496

  8. #28
    Senior Member Esquatcho's Avatar
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    Reckon its better to use extra derby girl frags to create dupes for sacrifice....

    Or to convert to precious frags and hope for a 5* heart/idol?

    Anyone crunched the numbers?
    Gringo-4930

    Currently grinding for:
    FFE - DDE - Redan - Allied General - Banshee - Banshee - Krampus - Ferryman - Daedalus / Valor

  9. #29
    Senior Member Liu's Avatar
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    precious soul = 50 frags
    conversion rate 5 derby frags = 1 prec soul frag

    50 * 5 = 250

    => 1.25 derby demon souls = 1 prec soul

    sac val of sac hearts at max lvl:
    1* = 1000
    3* = 1500
    5* = 4000


    assuming each precious soul drops with 1/6 (which is overestimating the sac val)
    expected sac val = 1/6 * (1k + 1.5k + 4k) = 1/6 + 6.5k = 1083

    sac val of derby demons at max lvl:
    4* = 2400

    1.25 * 2.4k = 3k

    3k > 1083

    and 1083 is already an overestimation due to the assumption of uniformly distributed pulls.
    so yeah, unless i did a stupid mistake then only convert your leftovers after the event has terminated.



    of course you have to take monetary gains into account as well. so lets add them up (assuming again a uniform dist again)

    sell val of idols:
    1* = 50k
    3* = 300k
    5* = 1m (not sure if its actually 1m, i didn't get them often enough to memorize it ><)

    1/6 * (1.35m) = 225k

    which is overestimating the monetary gain.

    then you have 3k sac val vs 1083 sac val + 225k gold

    if you want the proper expected values just replace the uniform probabilities with the actual probabilities which should be decreasing the expected values.
    Last edited by Liu; 12-12-2018 at 03:17 PM.
    Liu-5868

    from a world of magma to a cold rock face,
    the ascent of madness and the human race

  10. #30
    Senior Member druid138's Avatar
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    70 SoT fills (all Floor X):

    1,455 Lilith frags
    2,620 Derby Demon frags
    25 Rare Souls
    druid138-6195
    Beast Eddie
    Spiral path leads through the maze
    Down into the fiery underworld below

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