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  1. #1
    Senior Member Yup's Avatar
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    Heroic Souls..... How is it...

    So, out of a poole of only 10 souls...

    ....how is it possible....

    .... to drop more than 40 heroic souls and only get 3 star characters and 2 4 star characters (same 4 star toon x2).

    .....And then drop 4-5 Epic Hero souls and get the same 4 star character each time.

    I THOUGHT the odds were supposed to be better in hero souls. Clearly they are not.

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    Last edited by Yup; 05-27-2019 at 05:00 AM.
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Esquatcho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yup View Post
    I THOUGHT the odds were supposed to be better in hero souls. Clearly they are not.
    Nah not really. Still only ~10.5% chance you get 4 or 5* with heroics, with only 1.5% its a 5*. So your drops are about right, where youd need more like 67 to get a 5* on average.

    My rule of thumb is that if I want to get 'a' 5* heroic, Ive got to be prepared to drop a stack of 100. Then its a coin flip you get the one you want!

    For heroic legendaries, its a 12% chance of 5*. So 9 of them to be 100% sure of getting a 5* and then its a coin flip again.

    That said, to drop 4-5 and get the exact same char.... Thats really low possibility!
    Gringo-4930

    Currently grinding for:
    Van Helsing - Dark Lilith - Pharaoh Dog King - Werewolf - Minotaur - LoL - Krampus / Celestial

  3. #3
    Senior Member Liu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Esquatcho View Post
    Nah not really. Still only ~10.5% chance you get 4 or 5* with heroics, with only 1.5% its a 5*. So your drops are about right, where youd need more like 67 to get a 5* on average.

    My rule of thumb is that if I want to get 'a' 5* heroic, Ive got to be prepared to drop a stack of 100. Then its a coin flip you get the one you want!

    For heroic legendaries, its a 12% chance of 5*. So 9 of them to be 100% sure of getting a 5* and then its a coin flip again.

    That said, to drop 4-5 and get the exact same char.... Thats really low possibility!
    I don't understand your math. 12% chance of getting 5* <=> 88% chance of not getting 5*. Not getting 5* after dropping 9 souls = 0.88^9. Getting at least one 5* after dropping 9 souls = 1 - 0.88^9 = 68.35%.
    If you want to know how many souls to drop to exceed odds beyond a certain threshold - e.g. having more than 99% odds to get a 5*, then: 0.88^x < 0.01 <=> x < ln(0.01)/ln(0.88) = 36, i.e. dropping 36 souls means you're 99% likely to get one (or more 5*) and 1% likely to get none.

    Random means random. there's no certainty, never. you can drop a million legendaries and could end up with no 5*, though odds are small.

    /edit:
    Btw this is a gemoetrically distributed event "waiting for success" which is known to have an expected value of 1/p = 1/0.12 = 8.3, rounded up to the next integer it's 9 - maybe this is what you meant ?
    An expected value is a deterministic moment, but the number of your draws until success is still random.
    Last edited by Liu; 05-27-2019 at 12:21 PM.
    Liu-5868

    from a world of magma to a cold rock face,
    the ascent of madness and the human race

  4. #4
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    I needed Gunner Trickster... dropped 1 legendary soul and got him... movin' on.

    I (knock on wood) have had this same luck with every character I needed from heroics. I drop a mythic, get the 5star I need, drop a legendary, get the 4star i need, etc... Hope my luck doesnt change.

    The new announcement is huge! I need both Gemini toons and NotB eaddie!

  5. #5
    Senior Member MetalKing's Avatar
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    I dropped 32 normal heroic souls and 2 legendary heroic souls, and got a ludicrous result. 2 gunner chopper and three magus undead rescuers, and a bunch of 3 stars. I needed 3 of the available characters and got none of them.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Olevipoeg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MetalKing View Post
    I dropped 32 normal heroic souls and 2 legendary heroic souls, and got a ludicrous result. 2 gunner chopper and three magus undead rescuers, and a bunch of 3 stars. I needed 3 of the available characters and got none of them.
    I dropped 125 normals. I got not a single 5**** chars.
    Olevipoeg-2218

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  7. #7
    Senior Member Esquatcho's Avatar
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    Of course, I threw down 2 mythicals - 2 x Icarus :'(

    Edit: added 5 legendaries - All 4 star Dupes

    Edit Edit: 21 regular - 2 x 4 star dupes

    I was hoping to save legendaries for next rotation, but I suppose NotB is an essential right?

    Also, is it meant to be the case that rare heroics dont drop legendary shards, but legendary drop mythicals?

    Bastard! Legendaries got me another mythical - Another bloody Icarus!!!

    Final Edit: I reckon NoTB isnt actually available and its a horrible bug!!!! Another 5 legendaries and same derby demon / hellraiser / anubis every.single.time!

    Im going to give it a break for a day and then try dropping my last 5 legendaries, then hope I can get Maclo next rotation...
    Last edited by Esquatcho; 06-25-2019 at 06:31 AM.
    Gringo-4930

    Currently grinding for:
    Van Helsing - Dark Lilith - Pharaoh Dog King - Werewolf - Minotaur - LoL - Krampus / Celestial

  8. #8
    Senior Member SinGularity-8786's Avatar
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    1 mythical 150 normal no Eddie

  9. #9
    Member trooper206's Avatar
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    This is one of the worst RNG cases I've ever encountered with this game. Over 150 heroics, 20 legendary, and 7 mythical. Nothing but "stuck" in a ridiculously poor roll. I got so frustrated, that I had to use all my mythicals, and Icarus was popping one after another, until my last one finally dropped me the NoTB Eddie. This is simply infuriating. To see people earning that character by dropping 10-15 regular heroics, and a bunch of us grinding day after day like crazy, since this game has been released, only for the game to "repay" us in the worst way... This is shameful...
    We get so near, yet so far away
    We were meant to fight another day

    trooper206-9991

  10. #10
    Senior Member Esquatcho's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by trooper206 View Post
    This is one of the worst RNG cases I've ever encountered with this game. Over 150 heroics, 20 legendary, and 7 mythical. Nothing but "stuck" in a ridiculously poor roll. I got so frustrated, that I had to use all my mythicals, and Icarus was popping one after another, until my last one finally dropped me the NoTB Eddie. This is simply infuriating. To see people earning that character by dropping 10-15 regular heroics, and a bunch of us grinding day after day like crazy, since this game has been released, only for the game to "repay" us in the worst way... This is shameful...
    I hear you!

    I am currently at 4 Icarus & 25 4* numpties! I suppose I did get lucky with Redan in one hit.... But this is actually the one that I really wanted!!!

    @everyone - Should I save maybe 50 reg souls for Maclo/Gunner Krampus next rotation? Should I dump the last 2 legendaries to try and get NotB, or save them up for next time?
    Gringo-4930

    Currently grinding for:
    Van Helsing - Dark Lilith - Pharaoh Dog King - Werewolf - Minotaur - LoL - Krampus / Celestial

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