Experiment: Estimation of the real droprates for 3* Runes and dungeon loot

[slauki]

LAST UPDATE: 30.10.2016 (103 Rounds of the Helloween special event)

Dear LOTB-Community,

i'm sick of hints like "play level xyz and you will get 3* red runes".

thats why i will run an experiment to estimate the real droprates in some specific levels.

In theory it's very easy to estimate the dropchances. You play an infinite number of rounds and count everything you get. this will lead you directly to the real dropchances. unfortunatly this is nothing we can do in practice.
So the best method would be to play enough rounds to get significant numbers. I think several thousands of rounds should be enough to have real good estimations, but that's also too much for one individual.

So i will try this:

i will play several hundreds of rounds to check the droprates.

My hypothesis is, that the chances should be equal in any level of a specific world. maybe the bossstages have slightly other dropchances, but i doubt that too. We can check this by the end of the experiment.
If someone will join me, he/she is welcome, since every additional round will give us better results. i also got only 80 sands of time, and i'm not willing to spend too much ironite before the new updates changes the problems.


Please beware, that i've not finished yet, but i'm confident to publish my first observations. i'm totaly aware that 150 round is a way to small number to get serious results, but it is a start.

I played the following level on auto or manually and counted every 3* runes which dropped. When none dropped i counted that too, thats how the numbers are constructed (i hate myself for not counting the ironite, but i ignored that):

Underworld madness:









Battlefield madness (maybe i messed something up on matter of life and dead pre update, the numbers seem to be too symmertric):





Kingdom of the Sands madness:



You see that the dropchances are very similar in the different two levels. the 5% difference could easily be just variance. i think that the dropchances of 3*runes are about 33% but we will see, what comes up in the future.
The chances that a rainbow drops is about 10%. While this seems okay on paper you have to play 10 rounds on avarage for one rainbow 3*rune. So you need 90 to level up a talisman. but you can only play 58 times a day
without buying ironite. for theory purposes i'm igniring the extra sands of time you can earn). so if these numbers are right you have to play 1,5 days with an optimal use of sands of time to upgrade one single talisman. that's a very
high time investment for one single talisman...

I also played the dungeon on lexel X and counted the times i got premium loot (rare soul, 3* evo shard or specific 3* evo shard). here are the numbers.

Thanks to anonymous





since i have not counted the lower levels i cannot compare the results, but these numbers are quite interesting, i think.

i will try to continue working on this, so that we can compare the actual dropchances with the dropchances after the new updates.

if you got a level where you think the dropchances are really great, let me know about it. i'm sure if we play the level often enough we should have similar results compared with other levels at the same stage.

Helloween special:

[aur0ra85]

Great work. This post is reserved.

[Eagleknight]

Nice work!

[The Educated fool]

An interesting experiment. Thanks for sharing.

[Ddrak]

Thx slauki.

[slauki]

you're welcome guys :-) updated new numbers right now. i will try to update when i got a significant amount of rounds together.

[aur0ra85]

Ill post something when I have some concrete info to post. Looks like 6 sands of time ATM to upgrade one character to 5 stars according to your stats. :/

[slauki]

Ill post something when I have some concrete info to post. Looks like 6 sands of time ATM to upgrade one character to 5 stars according to your stats. :/

glad to hear, that you are going to help. i'm curious about your numbers....

to upgrade one char to 5* it looks like you need 8*80 sands of time if you want to earn 6 evoshards.

you have to play 80 rounds on avarage if the estimation is some kind of accurate (as it should be). each round costs 8 sand of time. So 80*8 = 640 Sand of time in total.

640 sands of time = 8 times 80 sands of time...

and if you got unlucky you can easily play 12 times the sands of time till you got 6 3* rainbow shards.... that's really dirty.
but they will do something about it, they said...let's pray for that.

[MuadDib-7367]

Other factors that should be considered are as follows:

1) the cost of playing each round such that a sands of time cost per 3* rune can be determined. It may be more cost effective to play madness in Kingdom of the Sands vs. Underworld

2) Ironite and additional sands of time drop rates. If these droprates differ from world to world, it may be more cost beneficial to play a world other than Underworld madness

3) Amount of credits earned per battle is a constant, but since credits are needed to level up talisman and characters, teh amount of credits dropped per battle is another consideration.

Having said all of that, slauki should be commended for all the work ha has done. I would not have had the patience to document all of that. It is encouraging to think that the drop rates are the same across battles. That will make it easier to identify the most cost beneficial battles to autofarm.

For now, I am farming Matter of Life and Death, Madness as it drops 3* runes and random sands of time and ironite along with $5k credits. I was doing the prisoner, but it drops $1k less credits and I do not need any of those talisman at the moment.

[jakalope]

Great thread. Thanks for taking the time slauki. I, like everybody else, feel the droprate for premium items drops far too seldom. Appreciate you taking the time to prove this out.