
Originally Posted by
Jofer16
Kaz is right, it's just how RNG works.
Think of it this way, when you flip a coin the odds are 50% you're going to get the side you want. But flipping twice won't guarantee it. You could get lucky and hit your side first flip, or get extremely unlucky and flip 5+ times never seeing it. Doesn't mean the odds have changed in either case, you're just making determinations based on tiny sample sizes.
Like he says, in order to see true odds you need a giant sample, hundreds, if not tens of thousands of pulls.
I used to play digital trading card apps with odds that were actually stated and had to explain this to people so many times. Cards would be listed as 10%, people would open 10, not get it and claim the odds were rigged. It's just not how math works when randomness is involved. Can get lucky and hit the card first try, or get unlucky not seeing it after 50 attempts. Small sample sizes will show huge deviations based on luck.
I'd put getting a 4* bot in forged to fight (highest rank over there) around 1-2% in the basic crystals in that game (similar to rare souls here). So yeah, sometimes you'll get lucky and hit a 4* with minimal crystals, but you can also get unlucky, open 100+ and never see one. Doesn't mean the odds are changing, you're just looking at a tiny slice of the pie. Same goes here.
It's just like gambling on slot machines, etc in a casino. There's odds, but randomness also plays a major role.