50 ?? Wow, thats a lot!Originally Posted by kgk56
I'll open my 10 souls tomorrow after the event is over. This helps against the temptation to buy more souls
She can be really annoying in PvP, but with a good strategy and some luck you get her killing her own team, which is nice!
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10-04-2018, 08:54 AM #111Senior Member
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10-04-2018, 09:04 AM #112Senior Member
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[moderated]
Worked hard the whole week! bought 20 more for hardly earned 1800 ironite and all i got from 30 [moderated] souls was a magus golden son, wicker man and 28 [moderated] 3 [moderated] stars!!!
[moderated]!!!
So frustrating...Last edited by Leviathan; 10-04-2018 at 05:52 PM. Reason: Edited for Inappropriate Language
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10-04-2018, 09:20 AM #113Senior Member
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Not bought a soul pack in a very long time now and that will continue - I have so very little luck on gambling that I decided a long time ago not to bother on these packs as I never got a single character I wanted to get in an event through them. So far I got 2 event souls in all the time I have played this game from actual events linked to that character - none from soul packs ever.
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10-04-2018, 09:30 AM #114Banned
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0,0168 * 0,41 * 30 = 0,2067 Originally Posted by Mizrael
With 30 souls you only have 20% to get that toon.
I think, that they still don't write the real percent rate is against apple rules.
Writing 1,68% and 41% looks better than 0,69% ( 0,0168 * 0,41 )
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10-04-2018, 11:17 AM #115Senior Member
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first rule for this game:
never buy EVENT souls and save ironite for good events...
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10-04-2018, 12:51 PM #116Senior Member
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Yeah, that is my view too. Spend it on events where you know you will get something. Like the fragment events before the sac event - I tend ot go for that - get lots of the event toon and then sac them. Originally Posted by Ip4
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10-04-2018, 12:56 PM #117Senior Member
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Why does 41% chance to pulled a toon look better than 0.41? They are identical. Just another reason for people to complain about a non issue.every event someone whines about the odds. Any long term player knows how the game works.
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10-04-2018, 01:39 PM #118Senior Member
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I think what he meant was that 41% (= "big number"...almost 50:50) looks better than 0.69%. That's why in the BoS you have this 2 stages of percentage - first for a 5* in general (small number) but then the second one (BIG number) for the event character. Originally Posted by Muzzleloader
Most players have stopped to buy event souls - concluded from what I read here. I guess the majority of event pack buyers don't know this forum
I also completely stopped to buy these souls. I did it in the first event when the Liliths were introduced as I misread the post. I didn't get that they will be available so frequently afterwards in the fragment events. So I bought 4 packs of 10 souls and did not get one single Lilith from these. Lesson learned!
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10-04-2018, 02:50 PM #119Senior Member
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I know the Forum and still I buy event pack ... call Me stupid ... but this time I really wanted this toon and I don't regret it Originally Posted by Blade
I guess the majority of event pack buyers don't know this forum
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10-04-2018, 03:00 PM #120Senior Member
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People are terrible with statistics.
Why do you think the lottery is so popular?
There's a higher chance you'll get hit by lightning than winning the lottery, by something like 2 orders of magnitude, yet people still waste their money.
Something I always think about when the soul odds topic comes up is that people assume that the odds for every character are equal, which we do not know is true.
Take the Rare soul with it's 1% chance for a 5*; there are 17 5* characters available in a Rare soul, 10 Eddies and 7 support.
Might be that it's a straight 5.88% chance for each character if you win the 1% lotto, but could be that there's a further 5% chance to get an Eddie and 95% chance to get support, and then it might not be an even chance within the Eddie or support pool. Granted, giving every character it's own % chance within the 5* tier goes against Occam's Razor, but different odds to get an Eddie vs support would be easy.
Precious soul : if you earn a x*, 100% chance of heart or idol
Surprise, surprise, those are the only things available at each tier. Are they really a 50% chance for each one in each tier? Seems likely, but my anecdotal results seem to favor idols over hearts.
The problem with us trying to calculate odds is that there is too much unknown, and small sample sizes.
We don't know what PRNG is used, how it's seeded, or how often it's reseeded. PRNG can be very good or total crap, and even good ones can be made to function poorly when set up wrong. Hopefully they didn't write their own, that's usually a terrible idea.
Dropping 100 souls is not a large sample size, 1000 is still a small sample size, really. The only way to really know is to test the PRNG against something like the Diehard tests.
